US election 2020 polls: Who is ahead - Trump or Biden?

 

Voters in America will decide on 3 November whether Donald Trump remains in the White House for another four years.

The Republican president is being challenged by Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden, who is best known as Barack Obama's vice-president but has been in US politics since the 1970s.

As election day approaches, polling companies will be trying to gauge the mood of the nation by asking voters which candidate they prefer.

We'll be keeping track of those polls here and trying to work out what they can and can't tell us about who will win the election.

Biden leading national presidential polls

National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but they're not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.

In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost - that's because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn't always win you the election.

With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.

Who's ahead in national polls?

DEMOCRAT

BIDEN

52%

REPUBLICAN

TRUMP

43%

Trend line showing average voting intention based on

 

individual polls

Show individual polls

average voting intention based on individual polls

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Date	BIDEN	TRUMP
Oct 31	52	43
Oct 31	52	43
Oct 31	52	43
Oct 30	52	43
Oct 30	52	43
Oct 29	52	43
Oct 29	52	43
Oct 29	52	43
Oct 29	52	43
Oct 28	52	43
Oct 28	52	43
Oct 28	52	43
Oct 28	52	43
Oct 28	52	43
Oct 27	51	42
Oct 27	51	42
Oct 27	51	42
Oct 27	51	42
Oct 27	51	42
Oct 27	51	42
Oct 26	51	43
Oct 26	51	43
Oct 26	51	43
Oct 26	51	43
Oct 26	51	43
Oct 25	51	42
Oct 25	51	42
Oct 25	51	42
Oct 24	51	43
Oct 24	51	43
Oct 24	51	43
Oct 24	51	43
Oct 23	51	42
Oct 23	51	42
Oct 22	51	43
Oct 22	51	43
Oct 21	51	43
Oct 21	51	43
Oct 20	51	43
Oct 20	51	43
Oct 20	51	43
Oct 20	51	43
Oct 20	51	43
Oct 19	52	42
Oct 19	52	42
Oct 19	52	42
Oct 19	52	42
Oct 18	52	42
Oct 18	52	42
Oct 18	52	42
Oct 18	52	42
Oct 17	52	42
Oct 17	52	42
Oct 17	52	42
Oct 16	52	42
Oct 16	52	42
Oct 15	52	42
Oct 15	52	42
Oct 15	52	42
Oct 14	52	42
Oct 14	52	42
Oct 13	53	42
Oct 13	53	42
Oct 13	53	42
Oct 13	53	42
Oct 13	53	42
Oct 13	53	42
Oct 13	53	42
Oct 12	52	42
Oct 12	52	42
Oct 12	52	42
Oct 12	52	42
Oct 11	53	42
Oct 11	53	42
Oct 10	52	42
Oct 10	52	42
Oct 09	52	42
Oct 09	52	42
Oct 08	52	42
Oct 07	52	42
Oct 06	52	42
Oct 06	52	42
Oct 06	52	42
Oct 06	52	42
Oct 06	52	42
Oct 06	52	42
Oct 05	51	42
Oct 04	51	42
Oct 04	51	42
Oct 04	51	42
Oct 04	51	42
Oct 03	51	43
Oct 03	51	43
Oct 02	51	42
Oct 01	51	43
Oct 01	51	43
Oct 01	51	43
Oct 01	51	43
Sep 30	51	43
Sep 30	51	43
Sep 30	51	43
Sep 29	51	43
Sep 29	51	43
Sep 29	51	43
Sep 28	50	43
Sep 27	50	43
Sep 27	50	43
Sep 26	50	43
Sep 25	50	43
Sep 25	50	43
Sep 24	50	43
Sep 24	50	43
Sep 24	50	43
Sep 23	51	43
Sep 23	51	43
Sep 22	51	43
Sep 22	51	43
Sep 22	51	43
Sep 22	51	43
Sep 21	51	43
Sep 21	51	43
Sep 21	51	43
Sep 20	51	43
Sep 20	51	43
Sep 19	51	43
Sep 19	51	43
Sep 19	51	43
Sep 18	50	43
Sep 17	51	43
Sep 16	51	43
Sep 16	51	43
Sep 16	51	43
Sep 15	50	43
Sep 15	50	43
Sep 15	50	43
Sep 15	50	43
Sep 14	51	43
Sep 14	51	43
Sep 13	51	43
Sep 12	51	43
Sep 12	51	43
Sep 11	51	43
Sep 10	51	43
Sep 10	51	43
Sep 09	51	43
Sep 08	51	43
Sep 08	51	43
Sep 08	51	43
Sep 08	51	43
Sep 08	51	43
Sep 08	51	43
Sep 07	50	42
Sep 06	50	42
Sep 06	50	42
Sep 05	51	43
Sep 04	51	42
Sep 04	51	42
Sep 03	51	42
Sep 02	51	43
Sep 02	51	43
Sep 01	50	42
Sep 01	50	42
Sep 01	50	42
Sep 01	50	42
Sep 01	50	42
Sep 01	50	42
Aug 31	50	42
Aug 31	50	42
Aug 31	50	42
Aug 31	50	42
Aug 31	50	42
Aug 30	50	41
Aug 30	50	41
Aug 29	51	42
Aug 28	51	43
Aug 28	51	43
Aug 27	51	43
Aug 26	50	43
Aug 25	50	42
Aug 25	50	42
Aug 25	50	42
Aug 24	50	42
Aug 23	50	42
Aug 22	50	42
Aug 21	50	42
Aug 20	50	42
Aug 19	50	42
Aug 18	50	42
Aug 18	50	42
Aug 18	50	42
Aug 17	50	42
Aug 16	50	42
Aug 15	50	42
Aug 15	50	42
Aug 14	50	42
Aug 14	50	42
Aug 13	50	41
Aug 12	50	42
Aug 12	50	42
Aug 11	50	42
Aug 11	50	42
Aug 11	50	42
Aug 11	50	42
Aug 10	50	41
Aug 09	49	41
Aug 08	49	41
Aug 07	49	41
Aug 06	50	41
Aug 05	50	42
Aug 04	50	42
Aug 04	50	42
Aug 03	50	42
Aug 02	50	42
Aug 01	50	42
Jul 31	50	42
Jul 30	50	42
Jul 29	49	41
Jul 28	49	41
Jul 28	49	41
Jul 28	49	41
Jul 27	50	42
Jul 26	51	41
Jul 25	51	41
Jul 24	51	41
Jul 23	51	41
Jul 22	50	41
Jul 21	50	41
Jul 21	50	41
Jul 20	50	41
Jul 19	51	41
Jul 18	51	41
Jul 17	50	41
Jul 16	50	41
Jul 15	50	41
Jul 15	50	41
Jul 14	50	40
Jul 14	50	40
Jul 13	51	40
Jul 12	51	40
Jul 12	51	40
Jul 11	49	40
Jul 10	49	40
Jul 09	49	40
Jul 08	49	40
Jul 07	50	41
Jul 07	50	41
Jul 06	49	41
Jul 05	49	40
Jul 04	49	40
Jul 03	49	40
Jul 02	49	40
Jul 01	50	41
Jun 30	50	41
Jun 30	50	41
Jun 30	50	41
Jun 29	50	41
Jun 28	49	41
Jun 27	50	40
Jun 26	50	40
Jun 25	50	41
Jun 24	50	41
Jun 23	50	40
Jun 23	50	40
Jun 22	50	41
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Jun 20	50	41
Jun 19	50	41
Jun 18	51	41
Jun 17	50	41
Jun 16	50	41
Jun 16	50	41
Jun 15	49	41
Jun 14	50	42
Jun 13	49	41
Jun 12	49	41
Jun 11	49	42
Jun 10	49	42
Jun 09	49	42
Jun 08	49	42
Jun 07	49	42
Jun 06	49	42
Jun 05	49	42
Jun 04	49	42
Jun 03	49	42
Jun 03	49	42
Jun 03	49	42
Jun 02	48	41
Jun 02	48	41
Jun 01	48	42
Jun 01	48	42
May 31	48	42
May 30	48	43
May 29	48	43
May 28	48	43
May 27	48	42
May 26	48	42
May 25	48	42
May 24	48	42
May 23	48	43
May 22	48	43
May 21	48	43
May 20	48	43
May 19	48	43
May 19	48	43
May 18	49	44
May 17	49	44
May 16	49	44
May 15	49	44
May 14	49	43
May 14	49	43
May 13	48	43
May 12	47	43
May 11	48	43
May 10	48	43
May 09	47	42
May 08	48	42
May 07	48	42
May 06	48	42
May 05	48	42
May 04	48	42
May 03	47	42
May 02	48	42
May 01	48	42
Apr 30	48	42
Apr 29	48	42
Apr 28	48	42
Apr 28	48	42
Apr 27	49	42
Apr 26	49	42
Apr 25	49	42
Apr 24	48	42
Apr 23	48	42
Apr 22	48	42
Apr 21	48	42
Apr 20	48	43
Apr 19	49	43
Apr 18	49	43
Apr 17	49	42
Apr 16	49	42
Apr 15	48	42
Apr 14	48	42
Apr 13	48	42
Apr 12	48	42
Apr 11	48	42
Apr 10	48	42
Apr 09	48	42
Apr 08	48	42
Apr 07	48	42
Apr 07	48	42
Apr 07	48	42
Apr 06	49	42
Apr 06	49	42
Apr 06	49	42
Apr 05	48	43
Apr 04	48	43
Apr 03	48	43
Apr 02	48	43
Apr 01	49	44
Mar 31	49	45
Mar 30	49	45
Mar 29	49	45
Mar 28	49	45
Mar 27	49	45
Mar 26	49	45
Mar 25	49	44
Mar 24	49	43
Mar 24	49	43
Mar 23	50	44
Mar 22	50	44
Mar 21	52	42
Mar 20	52	43
Mar 19	52	43
Mar 18	52	42
Mar 17	52	42
Mar 16	52	43
Mar 15	52	43
Mar 14	52	43
Mar 13	52	43
Mar 12	52	43
Mar 11	51	43
Mar 10	50	43
Mar 09	51	42
Mar 08	51	42
Mar 07	50	43
Mar 06	49	45
Mar 05	49	45
Mar 04	49	45
Mar 03	49	45
Mar 02	49	45
Mar 01	50	45
Feb 29	50	45
Feb 28	50	45
Feb 27	50	44
Feb 26	50	45
Feb 25	50	45
Feb 24	50	45
Feb 23	50	45
Feb 22	50	45
Feb 21	50	44
Feb 20	50	44
Feb 19	50	44
Feb 18	50	44
Feb 17	51	44
Feb 17	51	44
Feb 16	50	44
Feb 15	50	43
Feb 14	50	43
Feb 13	50	43
Feb 12	50	46
Feb 11	50	44
Feb 10	50	44
Feb 09	50	44
Feb 08	49	44
Feb 07	49	44
Feb 06	49	44
Feb 05	50	46
Feb 04	50	45
Feb 03	50	45
Feb 02	50	45
Feb 01	50	44
Jan 31	50	44
Jan 30	50	44
Jan 29	50	44
Jan 28	50	44
Jan 27	50	45
Jan 26	50	45
Jan 25	50	45
Jan 24	50	46
Jan 23	50	46
Jan 23	50	46
Jan 22	50	44
Jan 21	51	45
Jan 20	51	45
Jan 19	51	45
Jan 18	48	46
Jan 17	48	46
Jan 16	48	46
Jan 15	48	46
Jan 14	48	46
Jan 13	48	46
Jan 12	48	46
Jan 11	48	46

31 days until Election day

The BBC poll of polls looks at the  individual national polls from the last 14 days and creates  trend lines using the median value, i.e. the value in the middle of the set of numbers.

See individual polls

By contrast, in 2016 the polls were far less clear and just a couple of percentage points separated Mr Trump and his rival in the days before the election.

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Which states will decide this election?

As Mrs Clinton discovered in 2016, the number of votes you win is less important than where you win them.

Most states nearly always vote the same way, meaning that in reality there are just a handful of states where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states.

In the electoral college system the US uses to elect its president, each state is given a number of votes based on how many members it sends to Congress - House and Senate. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.

As the map above shows, some battleground states have a lot more electoral college votes on offer than others so candidates often spend a lot more time campaigning in them.

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Who's leading in the battleground states?

At the moment, polls in the battleground states look good for Joe Biden, although the margins are tight in several of them.

Mr Biden appears to have strong leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - three industrial states his Republican rival won by margins of less than 1% to clinch victory in 2016.

Latest polling averages in battleground states

Click a column header to sort the table by that column in ascending or descending order

Arizona	47.7%	46.5%	Trump by 3.6%
Florida	48.6%	47.2%	Trump by 1.2%
Georgia	47.8%	47.4%	Trump by 5.2%
Iowa	45.8%	46.5%	Trump by 9.5%
Michigan	49.8%	44.7%	Trump by 0.2%
Minnesota	48.0%	43.7%	Clinton by 1.5%
Nevada	48.6%	45.0%	Clinton by 2.4%
New Hampshire	53.4%	42.4%	Clinton by 0.4%
North Carolina	47.7%	47.4%	Trump by 3.7%
Ohio	46.8%	47.0%	Trump by 8.2%
Pennsylvania	49.7%	45.4%	Trump by 0.7%
Texas	46.5%	47.7%	Trump by 9.1%
Virginia	51.7%	40.3%	Clinton by 5.4%
Wisconsin	50.7%	44.1%	Trump by 0.8%

Source: Real Clear Politics, Associated Press. Last updated: 2 November

But it's the battleground states where Mr Trump won big in 2016 that his campaign team will be most worried about. His winning margin in Iowa, Ohio and Texas was between 8-10% back then but it's currently looking much closer in all three.

That's one of the reasons why some political analysts rate his chances of re-election as low as things stand.

The Economist thinks Mr Biden is "very likely" to beat Mr Trump while FiveThirtyEight, a political analysis website, sees Mr Biden as "favoured" to win the election but says the president could still come out on top.

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Who won the presidential debates?

IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES

Donald Trump and Joe Biden went head-to-head in two live TV debates.

The first, on 29 September, was a chaotic affair, with Mr Trump's combative approach stamping out any chance of a real debate.

A CBS News/YouGov poll taken straight afterwards suggested it was a good night for Mr Biden.

Of those who watched, 48% said Mr Biden was the winner while 41% went for Mr Trump - a similar split to national polling averages. Nearly 70% of people said the debate made them feel "annoyed".

In the second debate, on 22 October, organisers introduced a mute button to help police the arguments.

But it was a much more restrained President Trump on show and there was a much greater focus on the policies of the two candidates.

While that seemed to help Mr Trump somewhat, snap polls still suggested viewers thought Mr Biden's performance was more impressive.

A CNN poll found 53% of viewers thought the Democrat had done a better job in the debate, while 39% went with Mr Trump.

A YouGov snap poll was similar, with 54% saying Mr Biden had won compared to 35% for the president.

So while Mr Trump put in a better performance, it's unlikely to have been enough to change the balance of the race on its own.

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Has Covid-19 affected Trump's numbers?

We only had a couple of days to mull over the first debate before President Trump's bombshell tweet in the early hours of 2 October revealed he and the first lady had tested positive for coronavirus.

While the pandemic has dominated headlines in the US since the start of the year, the focus had shifted to the Supreme Court after the death of long-serving Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in September.

So Mr Trump's positive coronavirus test put his response to the pandemic, which has claimed the lives of more than 230,000 people in the US, back under the spotlight.

According to data from an ABC News/Ipsos poll, just 35% of Americans approve of how the president has handled the crisis. That figure climbs among Republicans, but only to 76%.

On his own health, 72% of respondents said that Mr Trump did not take the "risk of contracting the virus seriously enough," while the same number said he failed to take "the appropriate precautions when it came to his personal health".

A similar Yahoo News/YouGov poll found that about half of respondents believed he could have avoided contracting the disease altogether if he had practised greater social distancing and worn a face mask.

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Can we trust the polls?

media captionCan election polling predict who will become the next US president?

It's easy to dismiss the polls by saying they got it wrong in 2016 and President Trump frequently does exactly that. But it's not entirely true.

Most national polls did have Hillary Clinton ahead by a few percentage points, but that doesn't mean they were wrong, since she won three million more votes than her rival.

Pollsters did have some problems in 2016 - notably a failure to properly represent voters without a college degree - meaning Mr Trump's advantage in some key battleground states wasn't spotted until late in the race, if at all. Most polling companies have corrected this now.

But this year there's even more uncertainty than normal due to the coronavirus pandemic and the effect it's having on both the economy and how people will vote in November, so all polls should be read with some scepticism.

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