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Saturday, November 14, 2020

US Election 2020: The 'dead voters' in Michigan who are still alive

 

Roberto GarciaIMAGE COPYRIGHTROBERTO GARCIA
image captionRoberto Garcia told us: "I'm definitely alive and I definitely voted for Biden!"

Donald Trump's supporters have claimed that thousands of votes were cast in the US election using the names of people who had died.

"I may be 72," Maria Arredondo from Michigan told us when we called her. "But I'm alive and breathing. My mind is working fine and I'm healthy."

Maria said she had voted for Joe Biden and was surprised to hear that her name had appeared on a list of supposedly dead voters in the state.

We spoke to other people in similar situations to that of Maria in Michigan and found similar stories.

There have been occasions in previous US elections of dead people having apparently voted.

This could happen through clerical errors or perhaps other family members with similar names voting with their ballots, but Trump supporters have alleged this has happened on a massive scale at this election.

We set out to find out whether there is evidence for this claim.

10,000 'dead absentee voters' in Michigan?

The story starts with a list of around 10,000 names posted on Twitter by a Trump-supporting activist.

A tweet by an account called Essential Fleccas: Here's a list of 10,000 people that are confirmed deceased (cross referenced with Social Security Death Index) that requested and returned absentee ballots in Wayne County. Are these all "clerical errors" too?

It purports to be of people who have died, but who have also voted in the presidential election in Michigan.

Claims such as this have been repeated many times on different social-media platforms, including by Republican legislators.

The list of 10,000 contains the name, zip code, and the date a ballot was received. It then lists a full date of birth and a full date of death. Some of the people supposedly died more than 50 years ago.

Michigan has a database that lets you enter someone's name, zip code, month of birth and year of birth and allows you to see if they voted by absentee ballot this year. So you can easily check whether people on the list voted.

There are also several US websites that include databases of death records.

But there's a fundamental problem with this list of 10,000.

With an exercise like this you are going to find false matches - somebody born in January 1940 voted in Michigan in the election, and there was somebody born somewhere else in the US in January 1940 who has the same name and is now dead. This will happen a lot in a country as big as the US (328 million people), and particularly with common names.

To test the list, we picked 30 names at random. To this we added the oldest person on the list.

Of this list of 31 names, we managed to speak directly to 11 people (or to a family member, neighbour or care home worker) to confirm they were still alive.

For 17 others, there was no public record of their death, and we found clear evidence that they were alive after the alleged date of death on the list of 10,000. A clear pattern emerged - the wrong records had been joined together to create a false match.

Finally, we found that three people on the list were indeed dead. We examine these cases later.

Two male protesters in Michigan hold signs claiming voter fraud. One reads "Voter fraud" and other other "Detroit cheats".IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES
image captionPeople took to the streets in Detroit, Michigan, claiming the election results were fraudulent

What we discovered

The first thing we did was to check the official Michigan electoral database to see whether our 31 individuals had sent in ballots - they all had.

We then looked at the death records and quickly became suspicious on seeing that the vast majority did not die in Michigan, but elsewhere in the US.

A screengrab of the "dead voters" list
image captionSupporters of Donald Trump claimed they had a list of dead people who had voted in the election

We wondered whether we could find people of the same name currently living in Michigan.

Checking Michigan state public records, cross-referencing voter postal codes, we were able to find precise dates of birth for those who had voted - and as we had anticipated, they failed to match the dates of birth on the death records.

So we could be confident that we were dealing with two sets of people - those who had voted and those with the same name and age who had died elsewhere.

But what we really wanted to do was to speak to the voters themselves.

'I'm alive!'

We called Roberto Garcia, a retired teacher in Michigan. He told us: "I'm definitely alive and I definitely voted for Biden - I would have to have been dead to vote for Trump."

We also found a 100-year-old woman who, according to the "dead voter" list, had died in 1982. She was alive and is currently living in a nursing home in Michigan.

But the results of our search weren't always so straightforward.

When we looked for another centenarian, who according to the list had died in 1977, we found that she had still been alive when her postal ballot was returned in September. However, a neighbour told us the woman had died just a few weeks ago. We also found a matching obituary from October to confirm this.

If a voter dies before election day after submitting their ballot, the Michigan authorities say the ballot will be rejected.

We have not been able to establish whether her ballot was counted.

A woman surrounded by filing cabinets looking through ballots in Georgia.IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES
image captionVotes were still being tallied as unproven claims of fraud went viral

For those we couldn't reach by phone, we wanted to use other means to confirm they were alive.

These included public records of, for example, business activities, from state and local authorities.

For one woman who was supposed to have died in 2006 we found an annual company statement signed under her name from January 2020.

Two other men on our list of 31 died some time ago, yet votes had been cast in their names - with the correct postcodes and years of birth - according to the voting database.

We found that for both men, there were sons with the same name currently registered at the same address as their deceased fathers.

In both cases, a ballot was sent in for the dead fathers.

Local election officials told us that one of the votes had been counted but there was no record of the son having voted.

In the other, it was the son who actually voted, but it had been recorded as the father's due to a clerical error.

A protester in Michigan holds up a sign that says "Make Every Vote Count"IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES
image captionMichigan residents came out to celebrate Joe Biden's election success

'It's simply a matter of statistics'

Our selection of 31 cases is only a small sample of the 10,000 names on the list, but it has clearly revealed the flaws in the database shared by Trump supporters.

From our investigation it's clear that in almost all of our 31 test cases, the data for genuine voters in Michigan has been combined with records of dead people with the same name and birth month and year from across the United States to yield false matches.

"If the lists are linked based on name and birth date alone, in a state the size of Michigan, you're guaranteed to get false positives," says Prof Justin Levitt, an expert on the law of democracy.

It's known as the birthday problem - the high probability that two students in the same class share the same birthday.

So if you compare millions of voters in Michigan with a database of deaths across the United States you're bound to find cross-over, particularly if the voter database doesn't include the day of the month on which a person is born.

"It's simply a matter of statistics that if you cross-reference millions of records with millions of other records, you'll get a sizable number of false positive matches. We've seen this before," says Prof Justin Levitt.

With her vote safely cast, and counted, Maria Arredondo tells us she's looking forward to the new administration.

"He was a great vice-president under Obama. I'm so pleased. A weight has lifted off my shoulders."

Coronavirus: Austria locks down as new wave grips Europe

 

Market stalls are pictured at the Naschmarkt in Vienna, 2 November 2020IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES
image captionVienna imposed a partial lockdown at the start of November, including an overnight curfew

Austria is moving from a night curfew and partial shutdown to a second national lockdown that will be in place for at least two and a half weeks.

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has urged Austrians not to meet anyone from outside their household in an attempt to curb a rapid rise in Covid cases.

He said schools would close and students would learn from home when new measures come into force on Tuesday.

Austria reported a record number of 9,586 new daily infections on Friday.

That figure was nine times higher than at the peak of the initial wave earlier this year. The country has recorded more than 191,000 cases since the start of the pandemic, and 1,661 Covid-related deaths.

The new lockdown measures, which will see all non-essential shops and services - including hairdressers - close, will remain in place until 6 December. People have been told to work at home wherever possible.

Austria's Health Minister Rudolf Anschober said it was the last chance to stop the health service from collapsing under the pressure of new infections.

He said Austrians had already done it once and they could do it again.

Austria had its first nationwide lockdown in March, during the first wave of the pandemic.

Amid rising numbers, the capital Vienna had already imposed a partial lockdown, including a curfew from 20:00 to 06:00, at the start of November.

Countries across Europe are experiencing a surge in coronavirus cases, with some - such as Sweden - warning that it is too early to plan for Christmas travel.

A chart showing the increase in reported coronavirus infections in European countries

In Italy, more regions have been added to the list of coronavirus high-risk "red zones". Campania and Tuscany will join other regions placed under the strictest lockdown measures from Sunday.

Authorities in Campania, which includes Naples, have warned that the health system there is close to collapse. Italy passed one million confirmed cases earlier this week and there have been more than 44,000 deaths in the country.

Protest against coronavirus restrictions in Rome, Italy, 13 November 2020.IMAGE COPYRIGHTEPA
image captionRestaurant workers in Rome protested against the latest restrictions on Friday

A quarter of the new cases are in Lombardy, which includes Milan. It was the worst-hit area in Italy's first outbreak and it was Europe's first coronavirus hotspot.

Campania, however, has shot straight from the yellow zone to red as a spike in cases threatened to overwhelm hospitals.

Regions are divided into three zones - red for the highest risk, then orange and yellow. In the red zone at the moment are Lombardy, Bolzano, Piedmont and Aosta Valley in the north, and Calabria in the south.

In these areas, which cover about 16.5 million people in a population of 60 million, residents can only leave home for work, health reasons, essential shopping or emergencies. All non-essential shops are closed.

Bars and restaurants are also shut but people can exercise near their homes if they wear masks. Hairdressers can remain open.

Greece has announced that primary schools, kindergartens and day-care centres must close, as it tackles a death rate that has quadrupled since late October.

Since Friday night, a curfew from 21:00 to 05:00 is in place nationwide.

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Lockdowns and other measures are in force in several European countries experiencing a second wave of the virus. In other developments:

  • Portugal has significantly expanded its overnight curfew. From Monday, three-quarters of the country will be under the government's toughest restrictions. On Saturday, hundreds of bar and restaurant staff took over a main square in Lisbon to demonstrate against the closure of businesses
  • Germany reported a new record of 23,542 daily infections on Friday, dampening hopes that a national partial lockdown might be lifted soon
  • Ukraine has also registered a record number of new Covid-19 cases. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is among those being treated in hospital for the disease
  • There was better news from France, where new infections and hospital admissions dropped sharply at the end of the second week of its new national lockdown
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